The Verdict on Cook County Court Sentencing Data, Part 1

29 May

You can trace the course of justice in Chicago, including the direction and speed at which it travels, at the fledgling Cook County Government Open Data portal, a site brought to its URL at the behest of Kimberly Foxx, Illinois State’s Attorney for the county in which the city of the big shoulders shrugs. Four of the portal’s holdings –  Initiation, Dispositions, Sentencing, and Intake – chronologize the dispositions of cases processing through the system; I chose Sentencing for my look here.

It’s a big data set for a big city, recalling as it does sentencing records dating back to January 2010 and pulling through December 2017. With 189,000 cases and a field complement stretching to column AJ, don’t even think about calling it up in Google Sheets (the data-supporting capacity there: two million cells), but Excel is agreeable to its 41 megabytes if you are, and it’s available for download from the second above.

And at 41 megs, the minimalist in you will be avid to put your scissors to fields that might be rightly deemed dispensable. Cases in point: the four ID parameters fronting the data set in columns A through D, none of which are likely to advance your reportorial cause (note, by the way the interjection of commas into the large-sized identifiers, an unusual formatting fillip). Deleting the fields and their750,000 or so entries actually slimmed my workbook down to a lithe 29.7 mb, and that’s a good thing.

You may also note the slightly extraneous formatting besetting the INCIDENT_BEGIN_DATE, RECEIVED_DATE, and ARRAIGNMENT_DATE fields, their cells bearing time stamps all reading 0:00. I suspect these superfluities owe their unwanted appearances to the data in the ARREST_DATE field, which do exhibit meaningful times of suspect apprehension. We’ve seen this kind of excess before, but again it’s proper to wonder if any of it matters. If, after all, it’s your intention to re-present the data in pivot table form, for example, you’ll attend to any formatting disconnects there, and not here. If so, a reformatting of the data source may be no less superfluous.

But whatever you decide we can proceed to some analysis, acknowledging at the same time the scatter of blank cells dotting the records. Given the welter of substantive fields in there, quite a few possibilities beckon, and we could start by breaking out types of offenses by year, once you answer the prior question submitting itself, i.e. which of the available date parameters would be properly deployed here? I’d opt for ARREST_DATE, as it affords a kind of read on Chicago’s crime rate at the point of commission – or at least the rate of crimes culminating in arrest, surely a different and smaller-sized metric.

But if you’re thinking about installing the arrest dates into the column area, think twice – because the dates accompanied by their time-stamps are sufficiently granulated that they surpass Excel’s 16,384- column frontier. You’ll thus first have to swing these data into the Rows area, group them by Year, and only then can you back them into Columns, if that’s where you want them stationed.

And that’s what I did, only to be met up with a surprise. First, remember that Excel 2016 automatically decides upon a (collapsible) default date grouping by year, like it or not; and when I corralled the arrest dates into Rows I saw, in excerpt:

cook1

Now that ladder of years seems to be fitted with a column of rickety rungs. Remember that the sentence data appear to span the years 2010-2017, and so the aggregates above hint data entry typos, and at least some of them – e.g. the 1900 and 1915 citations – doubtless are.

The additional point, however, is that some of these putative discrepancies might tie themselves to crimes that were in fact brought to the attention of the justice system well in the past, and that took an extended while before they were actually adjudicated. Remember that our data set archives sentences, and some criminal dispositions take quite some time before a sentence is definitively pronounced.

For example, the 12 sentences associated with arrests made in 1991 reference serious crimes – seven murder or homicide charges, one armed robbery, one unlawful use of a weapon charge, one robbery and two thefts. One of the thefts, however, records an incident-began date (a separate field) of November 17, 2013, and thus appears to be erroneous.

But in any event, since our immediate concern is with arrests carried out in the 2010-17 interval I could click anywhere among the dates and proceed to group the data this way:

cook2

Note that I’ve modified the Starting at date to exclude the pre-2010 arrests, be they errantly captured or otherwise. Now after I click OK I can drag the years into the Columns area, after filtering out the residual <1/1/2010 or (blank) item.

Now I can drag OFFENSE_TITLE into Rows.

Surprise. With 1268 Offense categories cascading down the area you’ll have your work cut out for you, once you decide what to do next. Do you want to work with the data as they stand, or collapse near-identical types, and vet for misspellings along the way? Good questions – but in the interests of exposition we’ll leave them be.

How about something more immediately workable then, say age at incident? Exchange AGE_AT_INCIDENT for OFFENSE_TITLE, filter out the 2300 blanks, and group the ages by say, 3 years. Reprise AGE_AT_INCIDENT into Values (count). I get:

cook3

We see an extremely orderly negative association between age and arrests, with only the 20-22 tranche exceeding its predecessor bracket among the grand totals and only slightly. You’ll also observe that the numbers for 2017 are far smaller than the previous years, a likely function of incomplete data. In addition, track down to the Grand Totals row and behold the very significant ebbing of overall arrest totals from 2013 to 2016. Again, our table records arrest, and not crime totals, but the two likely point the same way – unless one wants to contend that the downturn in the former owes more to policing inefficiencies that any genuine diminution in crime – a not overwhelmingly probable development.

I’d then move to a Show Values As > % of Column Total look to learn how the brackets contribute differentially to arrests:

cook4

(The zeroes at the lowest reaches of the table reflect round-offs.)

Among other things, note the considerable, relative pull-back in arrests of suspects in the 17-19 range.

No, I don’t have an explanation at the ready for that, but perhaps you do.

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